Javnomnenjske raziskave za volitve predsednika Združenih držav Amerike 2024
Pred prihajajočimi ameriškimi predsedniškimi volitvami 2024 različne agencije izvajajo javnomnenjske raziskave, z namenom ocene volilnega namena v ZDA. Rezultati teh anket so predstavljeni v tem članku.
Navedene javnomnenjske ankete zaobsegajo obdobje od junija 2022 do danes.
Izvajalci uredi
Javnomnenjske raziskave volilnega namena redno izvajajo tri agencije:
- Morning Consult,
- Premise,
- YouGov Polling (izvaja predvsem za časopis The Economist),
- Echelon Insights,
- McLaughlin & Associates,
- Kaplan Strategies.
Rezultati uredi
Generalne volitve uredi
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden uredi
Izid volitev med Trumpom in Bidnom po anketah sodeč obeta tesen izid, saj noben od kandidatov nikoli ni v pretirani prednosti.[1]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca |
Donald Trump Republikanec |
Joe Biden Demokrat |
Prednost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
30. oktober - 1. november 2023 | HarrisX | 2.021 | 51% | 49% | Trump +2 |
22. - 26. oktober 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.100 | 48% | 43% | Trump +5 |
16. - 23. oktober 2023 | HarrisX | 3.029 | 45% | 41% | Trump +4 |
20. - 22. oktober 2023 | Morning Consult | 5.000 | 43% | 43% | enako |
18. oktober 2023 | Harris Poll | 2.116 | 52% | 48% | Trump +4 |
16. - 17. oktober 2023 | Emerson College | 1.578 | 47% | 45% | Trump +2 |
12. - 16. oktober 2023 | YouGov | 1.123 | 43% | 44% | Biden +1 |
11. - 16. oktober 2023 | Premise | 1.850 | 43% | 37% | Trump +6 |
13. - 15. oktober 2023 | Zogby Analytics | 869 | 49% | 51% | Biden +2 |
13. - 15. oktober 2023 | Morning Consult | 5.000 | 41% | 43% | Biden +2 |
10. - 15. oktober 2023 | Selzer & Company Grinell College |
784 | 40% | 40% | enako |
10. - 12. oktober 2023 | J.L. Partners Daily Mall |
neznano | 45% | 44% | Trump +1 |
8. - 10. oktober 2023 | YouGov The Economist |
1.500 | 38% | 38% | enako |
6. - 9. oktober 2023 | Beacon Research Fox News |
1.007 | 48% | 49% | Biden +1 |
30. september - 3. oktober 2023 | Survey USA | 2.330 | 43% | 43% | enako |
28. september - 2. oktober 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 1.725 | 47% | 45% | Trump +2 |
28. - 29. september 2023 | HarrisX | 1.615 | 45% | 42% | Trump +3 |
22. - 24. september 2023 | Morning Consult | 6.000 | 42% | 43% | Biden +1 |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy uredi
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca |
Donald Trump Republikanec |
Joe Biden Demokrat |
Robert F. Kennedy Neodvisni |
Prednost |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22. - 26. oktober 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.100 | 39% | 37% | 14% | Trump +2 |
17. - 20. oktober 2023 | YouGov | 1.000 | 37% | 38% | 14% | Biden +1 |
11. oktober 2023 | Marist College PBS Newshour |
1.218 | 37% | 44% | 16% | Biden +7 |
6. - 9. oktober 2023 | Beacon Research Fox News |
1.007 | 41% | 41% | 16% | enako |
3. - 5. oktober 2023 | Cygnal | 2.000 | 40% | 39% | 12% | Trump +1 |
3. - 4. oktober 2023 | Ipsos Reuters |
1.005 | 33% | 31% | 14% | Trump +2 |
25. - 28. september 2023 | Echelon Insights | 1.011 | 40% | 36% | 14% | Trump +4 |
Primarne volitve uredi
Republikanci uredi
-
Donald Trump
-
RonDeSantis
-
Vivek Ramaswamy
-
Nikki Haley
-
Tim Scott
-
Chris Christie
-
Asa Hutchinson
-
Doug Burgum
-
Ryan Binkley
Favorit za republikansko nominacijo je Donald Trump, sledita pa mu Ron DeSantis in Vivek Ramaswamy. Ostali kandidati bolj zaostajajo in imajo manjše možnosti.[2]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca | Trump | DeSantis | Pence | Haley | Ramaswamy | Scott | Christie | Burgum | Hutchinson | Elder | Suarez | Hurd | Johnson | Binkley |
AVGUST 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
17. - 21. avgust | HarrisX | 1.057 | 52% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
15. - 17. avgust | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 58% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% | / | / |
12. - 15. avgust | YouGov | 567 | 53% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
11. - 14. avgust | RMG Research | 229 | 60% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 13% | 2% | 5% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
11. - 14. avgust | Beacon Research (FoxNews) | 413 | 53% | 16% | 5% | 4% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
9. - 10. avgust | Kaplan Strategies | 800 | 48% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 0% | / | / | / | / | / |
2. - 7. avgust | Premise | 484 | 57% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
5. - 6. avgust | co/efficient | 1.638 | 55% | 13% | / | / | 4% | / | 5% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
1. - 3. avgust | Cygnal | 841 | 53% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% |
JULIJ 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
24. - 27. julij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 399 | 56% | 16% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
23. - 27. julij 2023 | The New York Times | 932 | 54% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / |
24. - 26. julij 2023 | Big Village | 718 | 61% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | 1% | 0% |
18. - 22. julij 2023 | JMC Analytics | 1.100 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | 0% | / |
17. - 18. julij 2023 | Kaplan Strategies | 800 | 48% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 12% | / | 5% | 0% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / |
13. - 17. julij 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 727 | 54% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 0% | / | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
7. - 14. julij 2023 | Premise | 435 | 58% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
11. - 13. julij 2023 | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 58% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 1% | / | 0% | 0% | / | / |
8. - 11. julij 2023 | YouGov | 549 | 49% | 20% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | / | / |
5. - 7. julij 2023 | TIPP Insights | 486 | 53% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / |
JUNIJ 2023 | ||||||||||||||||
26. - 29. junij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 413 | 49% | 16% | 5% | 5% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | / | / |
19. - 20. junij 2023 | Emerson College | 362 | 59% | 21% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / |
16. - 20. junij 2023 | Hart Research Associates | 500 | 51% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / |
15. - 19. junij 2023 | McLaughlin & Associates | 454 | 52% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | / | / | 1% | / | / | / |
14. - 16. junij 2023 | Morning Consult | 2.476 | 59% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | / | / | / | / | / |
9. - 14. junij 2023 | Big Village | 724 | 56% | 15% | / | 5% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | / | / | / | / |
10. - 13. junij 2023 | YouGov | 530 | 51% | 20% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
9. - 12. junij 2023 | Premise | 716 | 57% | 22% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | / | / | / | / | / | / | / |
Demokrati uredi
-
Joe Biden
-
Dean Phillips
-
Marianne Williamson
Trenutno je edini favorit za nominacijo aktualni predsednik Joe Biden, saj protikandidata za njim precej zaostajata.[3]
Datum | Izvajalec | Velikost vzorca | Biden | Kennedy | Williamson | ||||||
AVGUST 2023 | |||||||||||
17. - 21. avgust 2023 | YouGov (Yahoo News) |
495 | 69% | 7% | 5% | ||||||
17. - 21. avgust 2023 | HarrisX | 970 | 64% | 13% | 4% | ||||||
16. - 17. avgust 2023 | Emerson College | 392 | 69% | 9% | 4% | ||||||
11. - 14. avgust 2023 | RMG Research | neznano | 64% | 13% | 4% | ||||||
11. - 14. avgust 2023 | Beacon Research (Fox News) |
399 | 64% | 17% | 9% | ||||||
10. - 14. avgust 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 666 | 72% | 13% | 9% | ||||||
2. - 4. avgust 2023 | TIPP Insights | 500 | 63% | 15% | 4% | ||||||
JULIJ 2023 | |||||||||||
24. - 27. julij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 500 | 62% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
24. - 26. julij 2023 | Big Village | 922 | 63% | 20% | 9% | ||||||
19. - 24. julij 2023 | McLauglin & Associates |
428 | 65% | 13% | 3% | ||||||
20. - 22. julij 2023 | Morning Consult | 800 | 71% | 12% | 4% | ||||||
19. - 20. julij 2023 | Harris Poll | 765 | 62% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
13. - 17. julij 2023 | YouGov | 494 | 69% | 7% | 5% | ||||||
13. - 17. julij 2023 | Quinnipac University | 763 | 71% | 14% | 7% | ||||||
5. - 7. julij 2023 | TIPP Insights | 616 | 60% | 16% | 5% | ||||||
JUNIJ 2023 | |||||||||||
26. - 29. junij 2023 | Echelon Insights | 511 | 65% | 14% | 4% | ||||||
23. - 26. junij 2023 | Beacon Research | 441 | 64% | 17% | 10% | ||||||
19. - 20. junij 2023 | Emerson College | 441 | 73% | 15% | 3% | ||||||
16. - 20. junij 2023 | YouGov | 485 | 67% | 8% | 4% | ||||||
14. - 15. junij 2023 | Harris Poll | 381 | 54% | 14% | 5% | ||||||
9. - 14. junij 2023 | Big Village | 916 | 60% | 18% | 11% | ||||||
8. - 12. junij 2023 | Quinnipiac University | 722 | 70% | 17% | 8% | ||||||
5. - 9. junij 2023 | Suffolk University | 293 | 58% | 15% | 6% | ||||||
4. - 6. junij 2023 | Rasmussen Reports | neznano | 67% | 17% | 2% |
Sklici uredi
- ↑ »Latest Polls«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 31. oktobra 2023.
- ↑ »Who's ahead in the national polls?«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 19. junija 2023.
- ↑ »Who's ahead in the national polls?«. FiveThirtyEight. Pridobljeno 19. junija 2023.